Notre Dame drops a Deuce

Well, we finally know what we suspected all along; Deuce Knight might be playing for Auburn next year. Might? Tyler Wojciak (who I think has the best Notre Dame podcast out there) did a great job of summarizing the career arc of college quarterbacks going back to 2019 and the results might be surprising to you. Listen in starting at about 5:00 and see a summary of his comments below:

Here’s a summary of his comments:

Deuce Knight’s Transfer to Auburn

• Announcement: Five-star quarterback Deuce Knight officially transferred from Notre Dame to Auburn.
• Speculation: The transfer likely occurred 1-2 months prior, with Notre Dame keeping him as part of the recruiting class until the official announcement.
• Impact:
• Recruiting: Notre Dame loses a key recruit from their 2025 class.
• Performance: Deuce Knight possesses elite physical attributes (6’5″, 200+ lbs, 4.4 speed, 42-inch vertical) and strong running capabilities, making him a versatile asset.
• Concerns: Passing abilities remain questionable despite improvements from Quarterback Country training and participation in elite camps.
• Historical Context: High bust rates among top quarterbacks, similar to first-round NFL draft picks.

Analysis of Top Quarterback Classes (2019-2023)

• Methodology: Reviewed top five quarterbacks from each of the past five recruiting classes based on 24/7 Sports composite.

2023 Class

• Prospects:
• Arch Manning (Texas): Expected to perform well.
• Nico Iyamalayava (Tennessee): Positive outlook.
• Dante Moore (Oregon): Transferred from UCLA; performance TBD.
• Concerns:
• Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma): Considered a bust after struggling in early season.
• Malachi Nelson (Boise State): Transferred from USC; not starting.
• Summary: 2 hits, 2 busts, 1 TBD.

2022 Class

• Prospects:
• Kate Klubnik (Clemson): Decent performance.
• Connor Wigman (Texas A&M): Injuries hinder performance.
• Ty Simpson (Alabama): Backup, underperformed.
• Drew Allard (Penn State): Decent but inconsistent.
• Walker Howard (Ole Miss): Transferred from LSU; limited play.
• Summary: 2 modest hits, 3 busts.

2021 Class

• Prospects:
• Quinn Ewers (Texas): Hit after transferring from Ohio State.
• Caleb Williams (USC): Hit after transferring from Oklahoma.
• Sam Heerd (Utah): Considered a bust after multiple transfers.
• Brock Vandergriff (Kentucky): Underperformed.
• JJ McCarthy (Michigan): National Championship winner.
• Summary: 3 hits, 2 busts.

2020 Class

• Prospects:
• Bryce Young (Alabama): Considered a hit.
• DJ Uyungalay (Notre Dame): Underperformed, multiple transfers.
• CJ Stroud (Ohio State): Hit.
• Hudson Card (Texas/Purdue): Bust.
• Juquinden Jackson (Various): Bust with multiple transfers.
• Summary: 2 hits, 3 busts.

2019 Class

• Prospects:
• Spencer Rattler (South Carolina): Performed well.
• Bo Nicks (Arizona State/Auburn): Inconsistent.
• Jane Daniels (Auburn): Underperformed.
• Ryan Holinsky (Arizona State): Poor performance.
• Graham Mertz (Notre Dame): Underperformed.
• Summary: Mixed results with high inconsistency; multiple transfers and underperformers.
• Overall Trends:
• Success Rate: Approximately 20% of top quarterbacks perform well at their committed schools.
• Bust Rate: Close to 52%, increasing to 70% when expanded to top ten.
• Implications for Notre Dame: Losing Deuce Knight worsens odds, but recruiting continues to be essential.

Future of Notre Dame’s Quarterback Position

• Current Quarterbacks:
• CJ Carr: Potential standout.
• Kenny Minshi: Highly talented, possible starter.
• Steve Angeli: Likely to transfer unless he secures the starting role.
• Recruitment Plans:
• Competition: Expectation of a spring competition between Carr and Minchey.
• Transfer Portal: Potential search for additional quarterbacks if needed.
• Challenges: Finding reliable backups; possible reliance on FCS or Group of Five quarterbacks.

So? Who knows but I think Tyler’s analysis should lower some blood pressure rates! Few quarterbacks these days become great at the first school to which they commit. History tells us that Deuce Knight would not be a great quarterback here…